{"id":6500,"date":"2018-10-11T08:20:40","date_gmt":"2018-10-11T02:50:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/calamur.org\/gargi\/?p=6500"},"modified":"2019-04-15T02:23:58","modified_gmt":"2019-04-15T02:23:58","slug":"cnbc-tv-18-column-india-should-look-at-paying-for-oil-imports-in-rupees-to-get-past-global-trade-chaos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calamur.org\/gargi\/2018\/10\/11\/cnbc-tv-18-column-india-should-look-at-paying-for-oil-imports-in-rupees-to-get-past-global-trade-chaos\/","title":{"rendered":"CNBC TV 18 Column: India should look at paying for oil imports in rupees to get past global trade chaos"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I wrote for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbctv18.com\/economy\/india-should-look-at-paying-for-oil-imports-in-rupees-to-get-past-global-trade-chaos-799531.htm\"><strong>CNBC TV18<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On January 22<sup>nd<\/sup>, earlier\nthis year, President Donald Trump of the United States of America, fired the\nfirst salvo in the trade war by imposing massive duties on imported solar\npanels and washing machines, primarily to hurt China with whom the US has a massive\ntrade deficit. Since that day, the world has been plunged into the most trade\nchaos, since the end of the second world war. As the various nations dug in\ntheir heels citing national interest, a range of products began getting\nimpacted. From frozen pork, to poultry, from nuts and seeds to steel and\naluminium \u2013 there seems to be no category that is not currently facing a direct\ntrade threat. India is one of the countries that in President Trump\u2019s\ncrosshairs. When the Trump Administration imposed 25% tariffs on steel, India\nwas one of the nations most impacted. Recent reports say that the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livemint.com\/Industry\/9BXk8pQSvYJXPku1mmMHYN\/US-duty-hikes-begin-to-hurt-as-steel-exports-plunge-42.html\">export\nof steels has fallen by almost 42%<\/a><\/strong>.; Some of it based on increased\ntariffs, the other on the basis of declining demand. The trade war has begun\nhurting. And, there is no sign of peace soon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are already <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/economy\/article\/2153988\/us-slap-new-tariffs-worth-us34-billion-china-heating-trade-war\">25%\ntariffs on $34billion<\/a><\/strong> of Chinese technology exports, under\nsection 301, with the Americans claiming loss of copyright due to Chinese\n\u2018stealing\u2019 of American intellectual property. China has reciprocated with 25%\ntariffs on <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/08\/08\/china-announces-25percent-tariffs-on-16-billion-worth-of-us-goods-including.html\">$16\nbillion of American imports.<\/a><\/strong> The United States of America is\nplanning additional tariffs of<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/b5a08862-b3f8-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe\"> 25% on\n$200 billion of Chinese Products.<\/a><\/strong> It has also lined up tariffs\non an additional $267 billion of Chinse imports. If these two tariffs come into\nplay, practically <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/business\/markets\/trump-escalating-trade-war-threatens-tariffs-on-all-goods-from-china-20180908-p502j2.html\">every\nsingle Chinese import<\/a><\/strong> to the United States would be impacted. It\nis the American hope that the threat of these tariffs works as a crowbar to\nprise open the Chinese economy, and make it accessible to American producers. Trump\nhas already accused India of imposing upto 100% tariffs on US products, and\npromised to return the favour. While that has not yet come about directly,\nIndia has been impacted by the global tariffs on steel and aluminium. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But, the trade war is not just\nabout the two largest economies in the world slugging it out in the\ninternational trade arena. It impacts each of the countries that are involved\nin trade. Including India. &nbsp;&nbsp;It seems\nthat with each Trump announcement on trade, the dollar strengthens, as\ninvestors sell other currencies to buy the dollar. As the dollar strengthens\nrelative to other currencies, imports to America become cheaper. Widening the\ntrade gap and attracting more tariffs. The Rupee is not the only currency that\nhas been taking a battering. Other currencies, the Rand, the Renminbi, the Euro,\nthe Swiss Franc, they are all being pummelled. And, as various central banks,\nintervene to prop up their currency, selling dollars and buying their currency,\nit is likely that a trade war may also work towards destabilising the currency\nmarkets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the Rupee falls below Rs.72 to\nthe dollar, it is likely that most of our imports, which we pay in dollars, are\ngoing to become more expensive. Especially crucial is the growing demand for\noil and how they will impact India. Consumers in India are already facing the\nweight of almost daily fuel price rises. &nbsp;The dollar at 75, as predicted by many\nexperts, will impact imports seriously. And, India\u2019s imports are far higher\nthan her exports \u2013 leading to an increased balance of payments gap. India\u2019s\ncurrent account deficit already stands at 2.8% of the GDP, and the falling\nrupee is likely to make it worse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;One of the things India has to do, to get past\nthis trade chaos, and its potential devastation of economies, is look at hedging\nits bets in the international arena. And, the starting point is looking at\npaying for some, if not all, oil imports in rupees. We need closer trade ties\nwith the oil producers, working out an array of products they can buy from us\nin Rupees. India had a Rupee Riyal payment mechanism worked out with Iran, to\nbypass trade sanctions. Given that Iran is once more in the cross hairs of the\nUnited States, and India desperately needs oil at favourable terms, a revival\nmay be in order. This may not be possible in all cases. For example, as per the\n1973 agreement with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, in return for American\nprotection and arms, Saudi Arabia will only sell oil in dollars. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Americans are trying to bully\ntheir way into a solution that is most favourable for them. It is keeping their\nnational interest in mind. India has to act in a way, that without alienating\nothers puts our national interest first. Part of it might be looking at working\nout bilateral agreements, in local currencies for trade. We can\u2019t be waiting\nfor what America chooses to do next. We have to have options that inures us for\ntrade in a world that is undergoing a trade war. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I wrote for CNBC TV18 On January 22nd, earlier this year, President Donald Trump of the United States of America, fired the first salvo in the trade war by imposing massive duties on imported solar panels and washing machines, primarily to hurt&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10,25],"tags":[1183,1404,1605],"class_list":["post-6500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles-in-msm","category-international","tag-oil-imports","tag-rupee","tag-trade"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site 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