{"id":7607,"date":"2020-01-05T06:02:33","date_gmt":"2020-01-05T06:02:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/calamur.org\/gargi\/?p=7607"},"modified":"2020-01-05T06:02:44","modified_gmt":"2020-01-05T06:02:44","slug":"cnbc-tv18-column-the-indian-economy-quicksand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calamur.org\/gargi\/2020\/01\/05\/cnbc-tv18-column-the-indian-economy-quicksand\/","title":{"rendered":"CNBC TV18 Column: The Indian Economy Quicksand"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This appeared on the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbctv18.com\/economy\/view-let-the-caa-nrc-and-npr-not-distract-attention-from-the-economic-slowdown-4941721.htm\">26th of December<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The protests around the Citizenship\nAmendment Act (CAA), the National Register of Citizens (NRC), and the National\nPopulation Register (NR) have provided a welcome respite to Finance Minister\nNirmala Sitharaman who was facing increasingly uncomfortable questions about\nthe state of the economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That the economy is nose divining\nis something that most people can see, either because they can read economic\nindicators, or because they are living through the downturn. There are stories of\n&nbsp;unemployment all around. From the\naverage daily wage worker who is finding it difficult to get paid work, to the\ncorporate executive in his mid-forties who has been laid off, to the&nbsp; young MBA graduate who has not yet been\nplaced 18 months after graduation \u2013 most of us know at least one person who has\nno work. And, that is the first problem with the economy. There are not enough\nearning members, earning enough money. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.indiatoday.in\/business\/story\/india-unemployment-rate-6-1-per-cent-45-year-high-nsso-report-1539580-2019-05-31\"><strong>unemployment\nrate<\/strong><\/a> is pegged at 6.1% for 2017-18, has been the highest in decades.\nAnd, the problem of unemployment is far more acute in urban areas (7.8%) than\nin rural areas (7.8%). When people don\u2019t have jobs, or are worried about losing\ntheir jobs, their tendency is to consume less and conserve more. This is simple\nhuman psychology, where we put away enough for a rainy day. However, even that\nis not coming to pass. We have with the problem of unemployment, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbctv18.com\/economy\/indias-elevated-food-inflation-limits-scope-for-further-rate-cuts-4914591.htm\"><strong>heavy\ndose of inflation,<\/strong><\/a> especially food inflation. Prices of staples \u2013\ngrains, pulses, eggs, meat, edible oil \u2013 are on the rise, and there seems to be\nno stopping the upward trend. When this happens instead of conserving or\nsaving, the bulk of the income goes in food related expenses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And there is the third whammy \u2013\nthat of industrial output that is shrinking, because entrepreneurs across the\ncountry have no risk appetite \u2013 also known as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/a\/animal-spirits.asp\"><strong>animal\nspirits<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 to invest. Factory output has been showing a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.livemint.com\/news\/india\/retail-inflation-rises-to-5-54-iip-down-to-3-4-11576151470534.html\"><strong>month\non month decline<\/strong><\/a>, for the last quarter. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)\nhas shrunk &nbsp;and every major institution\nthat revelled in the India growth story, is now busy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbctv18.com\/economy\/moodys-cuts-india-gdp-forecast-for-fy20-to-49-percent-citing-weak-consumption-4881061.htm\"><strong>downgrading\ngrowth figures<\/strong><\/a> for the economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anyone of these issues is serious\nenough for a government to take note, all three of them together is an\nindicator of serious trouble. And, the Government of India rather than tackling\nthis head on, seems to be in denial on the basic fact that we are in the midst\nof a slowdown. A chorus of \u2018all is well\u2019 from the Government and its supporters\nin the media and online communities is coming in the way of finding solutions\nfor a problem that is not imaginary. However, the desire to build statues seems\ngreater than the ability to fix the economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is in this context that you need\nto read <a href=\"https:\/\/www.livemint.com\/news\/india\/imf-says-no-to-fiscal-stimulus-okay-with-further-monetary-policy-easing-11577181218530.html\"><strong>the\ncomments<\/strong><\/a> of Gita Gopinath, head of the International Monetary Fund\n(IMF). Her team has suggested that India hold off any fiscal stimulus to the\neconomy, and wait for adjustments in monetary policy to pay dividend. They have\nfurther said that the achievement of a $ 5 trillion economy by 2024 seems\nimprobable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to economic theory (More\nspecifically Keyenesian economic theory) an inection of capital into the\neconomy \u2013 from which ever major stakeholder , Individuals, Government,\nIndustry, exports \u2013 would act as a boost to the economy as a whole, and\nmultiply its effects across the economy. When individuals have no jobs, and\nindustry has no money, this role falls on the government.&nbsp; This is why in times of downturn, when animal\nspirits are low, governments across the world tend to undertake some form of\nfiscal stimulus to rekindle the economy.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, to ensure that Governments\nacross the world do not spend themselves out of any economic mess, there are\nagreed on targets to ensure that the fiscal deficit stays within a certain\nthreshold of the GDP. A fiscal deficit is the shortfall in the Government\u2019s\nincome, when compared to its expenses. The fiscal deficit does not include any\nshortfall made up via borrowings. Most countries, across the world run some\nform of deficit financing for the services and infrastructure that it provides\ncitizens. In India the fiscal deficit target is 3.4%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There has always been the tussle\nbetween the IMF and sovereign nations coping with their economic cycles. The\nuse of fiscal stimulus to kick start the economy has always been a point of\ncontention. For India to come out of the economic quicksand that it finds\nitself in, it needs to kick start the economy with a fiscal stimulus. However,\nIMF wisdom suggests that we hold on to our fiscal discipline and implement\npolicy easing. However, policy easing shows impact in the medium to long run.\nAnd, India has an immediate problem with growth, inflation, and umemployment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What can the Government do? Pretty\nmuch what any organisation would do when faced with such issues. Roll out the\nbest team in the country \u2013 irrespective of party affiliation \u2013 get them to don\ntheir suits and go and meet international bodies, corporations, and funds \u2013 and\nget them to start investing. This is not merely promises of investment, rather\nit is actual implementation of the investment promises. Else the economy that\nwe will leave behind for next generation will be a mess, and they won\u2019t thank\nyou for it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This appeared on the 26th of December The protests around the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the National Register of Citizens (NRC), and the National Population Register (NR) have provided a welcome respite to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman who was facing increasingly uncomfortable&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7515,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10,15,23],"tags":[1776],"class_list":["post-7607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles-in-msm","category-economics","category-india","tag-indian-economy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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