We keep talking abou the Demographic Dividend, and how lucky we are that 70% of India is under 35. 30 years from now, 70% of India will be under 65 – are we prepared for it? One of the things that preys on my mind, especially as i get older, and see my relatives get even older is – wow, how is it going to be 30 years from now. It is likely that i will die closer to 100, than to 60, the women in my family, generally live long. And, things that i ask my self is, 30 years from now, where will I be (if alive), what kind of a lifestyle will i lead;  what will be healthcare like, is it going to be an assisted community, and where does all this exist in India. One of the things i would like to see is an open conversation on 30 years from now, when India’s demographic dividend begins greying. I write on this, in today’s dna

In 1901, the British Raj published the census for the jewel in its crown, India. It was one of the most comprehensive enumeration of India, down to individual professions. For example, a glance at the census report of 1901 will tell you that there were 5.73 lakh water carriers in India, and 1.31 lakh ‘grooms, coachmen, and dog-boys’. The census document that lists professions, and the number of people engaged in each trade, or practising each skill, is especially fascinating. If the British Empire was good at one thing, it was the ability to create systems and processes that would tabulate anything on earth. Visit the British Museum, home to 8 million plus artefacts, or the Kew Gardens, to get a sense of how they capture, store, present and use information, and knowledge. The Census was no different. It was done to account for every single person in the British India. In 1901, India was predominantly a rural economy. Less than 11% of India was urban. In the first census of the new millennium, the 2001 census, the urban population stood at 27.8%, and provisional data from the 2011 census indicates that this has gone up to 37.7%. It is expected that by 2021, when the next census figures would be published, that number would go up even more – fuelled at a certain level by the Government’s Smart Cities programme, and the promise to build more cities.

As the population of India becomes more urban, and more non agriculture based jobs are created, India is said to be reaping a demographic dividend. More young people, of working age, who will earn and pay taxes that pays for further expansion of the economy. . As per the provisional figures of the 2011 Census, 62.5% of India is in the working population age of 15-59. This is also the much touted demographic dividend that is supposed to accrue to India. The larger the proportion of the population in the working population range, the more the tax revenues. Much of the west, and even China are facing the reverse problem, an older population, and a declining percentage of working population, leading to questions of who will pay for basic state services, such as health, education and social security.

While there is much that is written about India’s demographic dividend, and the rapid scaling up of skills and industries to utilise these in the near future, there is one other issue that also bears consideration. And, that is, that populations don’t stand still in demographic groupings. Populations grow older. Today’s 15-59 population cohort, will be the 45-89 year old cohort, 30 years from now. And, while India may be preparing for the challenges for skilling, training and employing the young, are we also preparing for a greyer India?

As per the 2011 census, 8% of India is over the age of 60. That figure is going to increase in the years to come.   There will be many areas in which India has to transform, to meet the needs of a growing grey population. The first is to look at how does this experienced population help in building the economy. How do you keep involving them in mentoring, and guiding the next generation. The second is, as the traditional family system breaks down, there needs to be a sustained system of care. This could be in the form of retirement homes, senior citizen colonies and the like. It would also mean a whole area of work, and specialisation that goes towards caring for seniors. Healthcare, Nursing, physiotherapy, counselling, carers, food items and more. It could also be people who design products and services specially for this audience. It would mean buildings and transportation that are senior friendly.

The world is changing drastically. While we are aware of major technological changes that may impact our job security, we also need to be geared for demographic changes. From an education and employment perspective, the next 20 years are going to be crucial. The skills you pick up today, will, most likely, not be relevant in the next five years. The question is how do you remain in demand, in a rapidly changing economy. The answer is quite simple, by observing macroeconomic and societal trends, and learning new skills that keep you in demand in a new reality.