Actually, the rate at which Artificial Intelligence is developing, not very long. Can we do other things, yes … but there has to be very clear cut policy initiatives to create those jobs, and skill for them.
Weiqi is a 2500 year old board game from China. In English, this game is called Go. Played on a large square board, with 19*19 squares (chess is 8*8), Go is a two-player game of strategy. Each player tries to win by encircling the other. Given the number of squares and moves, it is believed that there are more moves than atoms in the known universe. The Game is complex, and it takes great skills to master, and is played at the international level with the same zeal as Chess. It is recently In the news, the number one Grandmaster in the world, Ke Jie lost narrowly, in a match held in China in May. The winner was not human, but Google’s AI system AlphaGo. Ke in a post match statement referred to the AI as the God of Go. The kind of game that the AI played was considered highly evolved, what humans maybe able to play in the future. Google has said it will retire the programme, and use the learnings to apply in other areas that impact humanity.
While human players of Go, heave a collective sigh of relief at the retiring of the top ranked player in the world, AlphaGo, the rest of humanity, especially governments and policy makers, need to wake up to the level of sophistication in Artificial Intelligence, and plan for its impact on employment. A recent academic paper by scholars at Yale University, and Oxford University, asked a simple question “When will AI exceed Human Performance” . They conducted a survey amongst 352 of the top academics and practitioners who work in the area of Artificial Intelligence.
As per the survey results, experts predict that, from 2016, it would take 15 years for AI, to exceed human performance in retail sales; 12 years to be the best truck drivers; A dozen or so years to generate a chart topping pop song; about 7 years to exceed human performance as a tele banking operator; about 12 years to fold laundry, and 6 years to beat us at Angry Birds.
While this is great as far as the pushing of frontiers of technology is concerned, it is not very good news for most people, many who are either unskilled, poorly skilled, or have skills that are going to become obsolete in the near future. While there is possibility of new jobs in the future, unless policy makers, academia, and industry sit together and discuss what kind of jobs will there be, and the kind of skills that will be needed to perform those jobs, we are looking at an era where most people will be sitting at home, with not too much to do.
As the Modi Government completes it’s third year in power, it needs to call for an all hands on deck meeting, on an issue that is very real. What are you going to do with the demographic dividend. If new industry setting up, to boost manufacturing, relies in the main, on robotic assembly lines. What kind of skills should India be planning, to ensure that a large chunk of India, under the age of 35, is gainfully employed? What are the future areas we need to build capacities in, and how do academics from primary school get geared towards meeting the needs the India of tomorrow? These are questions that the nation really needs to know.
Right now, we are focused on academia that throws light on our glorious past. And, while that may be important in its place, it is as critical to throw light on the future. India capitalised on the information technology revolution, that saw us moving from a poor nation to being a force to be reckoned with. It now needs to focus on being at the forefront of Intelligence Revolution. And, the time to build for a future with new jobs is now.
