Food Protectionism seems to be on the rise, in the shadow of the Russian assault on Ukraine. I write for the FPJ on the consequences of Food Protectionism on the world, and India.
About 3 months ago, Vladimir Putin of Russia ordered the invasion of the neighbouring nation of Ukraine. The war that was predicted to get over in 3 days with victory to Russia, is now approaching its 100th day, with the Ukrainians holding their own, and fighting for their independence with a passion that is inspiring. The Western nations are aiding Ukraine with money, arms, and intelligence – fighting a proxy war with Russia. The rather sardonic joke about the war is how West will fight Russia till the last Ukrainian, seems less like a joke and more of a prediction as the war mounts. And while that battle rages – sapping the life energies of both the Russians and the Ukrainians, the world seems to be plunging into another war. A much older and pervasive war. The war against hunger.
Ukraine has been the breadbasket of the world for the longest time. A bountiful harvest in the Ukraine would mean sufficient bread for large swathes of people in the states adjoining the Black Sea, the Arabian Peninsula, and the North African states. Closer home, Bangladesh and Indonesia are heavily dependent on Ukrainian wheat. Sown in the autumn months, wheat would have been harvested and been ready for shipping when the war stuck. The major Black Sea ports, including Odessa, have been facing blockade. On Saturday, the Ukrainian foreign affairs minister, Dmytro Kuleba, tweeted, “Sanctions on Russia have no connection to the unfolding global food crisis. The sole reason for shortages, rising prices, and threat of hunger is the Russian military physically blocking 22 million tons of Ukrainian food exports in our seaports. Demand Moscow to end its blockade.” Food supplies are stuck. Negotiations are on to get them released, but the numbers of nations getting anxious at the food security of their populations is increasing.
But it is not just wheat production and supply that is in peril. There are dangers posed to the production of sunflower oil – Ukraine and Russia account for almost 70% of the world production; barley and maize that are used for animal feed, and packaged food production. Over and above this, there is a threat to the supply of fertilizers. There are three broad types of fertilizers used in commercial farming – nitrogen, potash, and phosphate – and both Russia and Ukraine are the centres of production for these. Countries across the world, including India, would be impacted by this shortfall. While India has import substitution policies in place, it will take time for the industries to move production capacity. A reduction of grain supply is expected to impact food security this year, while a shortage of fertilizers is expected to have an impact on future produce.
Source: International Food Policy Research Institute.
The world is rapidly looking for alternative sources of food supply to ensure that mass starvation does not take hold. And as that is happening, nations who have traditionally been food suppliers are pulling up the drawbridges on food exports. Indonesia, the largest producer of palm oil, started the trend, in April, by banning its export. 63% of India’s import of edible oils is palm oil, and almost all of it comes from two nations – Indonesia and Malaysia. Argentina has banned the export of soyabean oil, and soya bean; Egypt has banned the export of vegetable oil, and maize; India has banned the export of wheat. Each of these nations is looking to ensure that its population is taken care before the rest of the world is.
The last time Europeans went to war, the cost on the res of us was huge. During the second world war, as Imperial Britain diverted food supplies from a drought struck India to its soldiers fighting in the war, millions of Indians starved to death. It is likely that everyone of the former colonies of imperial powers have similar memories, and incidents that would remind them of the perils of exporting grain and essentials before meeting internal demand.
One of the greatest impacts of the ban on exports is rising food prices. We are already seeing this in the spiralling costs of vegetable oil and sunflower oil, and it is likely that there will be spikes in the prices of other essentials. In a world not yet over the impact of the economic crisis brought about by COVID, this does not portend well for vulnerable populations in those nations.
Pulling down the shutters on food trade may seem to be the easy way out – but that is likely to have consequences in the medium and long terms in terms of nutrition, and prices. There doesn’t seem to be anyway but for impacted nations to get together and talk like grownups – and see how they can mitigate this current disaster from having too much impact on vulnerable populations. The only way out seems to be openness and collaboration. The focus needs to be on minimising the impact on the poorest. Not just to ensure that western populations do not face in discomfort. And to do that the nations of the global south need to talk.