i write on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, and look at the implications for India, in FPJ
Ukraine would have celebrated its 21st birthday, later this year in August, as an independent country. Its birth as an independent nation took was enabled by the implosion of the Soviet Union. With its vast farmlands, it was a vital part of the Soviet Republic, producing most of the food. A famine in the Ukraine meant that the Soviet Union starved. But its food production was not the only reason it was valuable to the Soviet Empire. It also provided the exit to the black sea, and the ports of the west. The Soviets then, as the Russians now, were hampered by the absence of ports that would not freeze over in the winter. And control over Ukraine enabled that.
For the last few years, Ukraine has been making noises about joining the EU, and NATO. If this came to play, Russian access to the Black Sea would be in peril. And, Russia traditionally has been extremely jumpy about its borders, and security. It has consistently blocked Ukraine’s attempts to join either the EU or NATO.
in 2013, Ukraine had massive protests when their then Government, backed by the Russian, instead of signing a treaty with the EU, signed one with Russia instead. The protests, dubbed the Dignity Revolution, led to the overthrow of the pro-Russian President Yanukovych – named by Transparency International as being among the most corrupt world leaders. Yanukovych lives in exile in Russia and is accused of siphoning off at least USD 70 billion of Ukrainian money and assets.
As the Dignity Revolution was taking place in Kiev, Russia invaded Eastern Ukraine, and annexed Crimea. The world spluttered and went into paroxysms of outrage, but Crimea 8 years later is still strongly under the grip of the Russians. Russia has been consistently making territorial claims on Ukraine, literally trying to slice it part by part, before swallowing it fully.
One of the habits of the old Soviet Union, would be to forcibly resettle ethnic Russians in other Republics. This was to ensure a strong Russian control on these territories and republics. Ukraine today has a large Russian population, some of whom still march to the tune played by the Russians. It is this that Putin has used as an excuse to invade. For those of us who are students of history, the parallels with Hitler and the invasion of Poland are unreal. Hitler’s main ‘excuse’ to invade Poland was that German ethnic groups in Poland were in danger from the Polish. Putin has followed that playbook. He claims that there is fear of genocide on the Russian population in Ukraine. But the reason is less about people, than about geography. The control on food, and the control on the ports.
The western powers have reacted to their old foe from the East’s muscle flexing. The EU has frozen the ability of Russia to access its funds. In a comprehensive set of measures the EU has frozen the ability of individuals, entities, and the state to access their own funds. Furthermore, Russia has been disconnected from the international banking system SWIFT. SWIFT allows economies to trade easily, by enabling rapid cross border banking clearance and transfer. The impact of this is expected to bring both Russian exports and imports to a grinding halt. It is expected that these economic measures will hit the Russian people in the next few days. The people of Russia have been protesting against Putin, and this economic blockade by the west may just exacerbate this.
The United States has imposed sanctions. NATO is on red alert. Poland has asked for the fast tracking of Ukraine’s membership of the EU. And it is likely that calls to make it a part of NATO will follow.
What we see here is essentially power games being played out in the old theatre of imperialism – Europe. America, owing to its European roots, and its role in the post war alliance, is still the defacto leader. On the other side you have Putin, who is bent on re-establishing old Russian Empire and its glory – by reclaiming territories lost. These are not just 20th and 21st century issues – they have roots going back at least a few centuries.
Both China and India have been uniquely silent – except for making the obligatory noises about peace and dialogue. At the one end is an unforgiving Putin and the might of the Russian cyber-techno-military complex. At the other end is the West and their financial muscle and trade capacity. In an ideal world, young men and women would be lining up to volunteer to fight for the Ukrainians.’ In an ideal world, nations would be pledging military support to Ukraine. But we do not live in an ideal world. We live in a real world, where realpolitikrules.
For India the threats of the wrong choice are many. Losing a steady supply of arms and ammunition, and being on the wrong side of our own ally. Estranged from the west and key strategic partners. A more muscular China seeing Putin’s actions as a green signal – and physically reassert its claim on our territories. A slowing down of world trade, and its impact on the economy rising from the COVID attacks.
India has to act in her self-interest. But the question is whether our best self-interest is served by sitting on the fence and hoping that no one notices or is taking the leadership position and doing something that brings peace.